Category Archives: Odds Ratio

Elo rankings for international baseball

In this article, we present a predictive power ranking of national baseball teams based on the Elo rating system. This system objectively measures teams’ relative strength based on past performance, strength of schedule, run differential, and the event importance. To our knowledge, this system is unique: although the International Baseball Federation (IBAF) releases yearly rankings of national baseball teams based on performance in international competitions, this ranking includes results across multiple age levels and is not designed to predict future results.

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Presented at 2014 Saberseminar

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How fast does team batting average stabilize?

…Carleton showed that a player’s batting average (BA) only stabilizes towards his true talent level after 910 at bats (AB).┬áBut a team can get that many AB in a month. Intuitively, if a player can suffer through a bad month at the plate, why can’t a team? The Marlins may have approached the Mendoza line on the road in April, but that includes a 10-for-53 stretch by Giancarlo Stanton. Odds are, they’re not as good as they looked in Miami to open the season, and they’re not as bad as they looked away from Miami either.

Read the rest at Beyond the Box Score